as of 2026-10-13 · trades on the first run of each month, marked to market in between
ETF Book$100.0KMonitoring · next recalibration 2026-11-01Initial book
ETF-only alternative built from the same engines · separate from the stock portfolio
Contraction regime · risk Stable · last recalibration 2026-10-01
Positions
11
turnover 34.6% this run
Cash
30.9%
posture cash + sleeves out of trend
Portfolio vol
10.0%
target 10% · before targeting 10.1%
Vol scale
×0.99
exposure multiplier from vol targeting
Beta to SPY
0.66
whole book, 60-day
Weighted score
70
weight-averaged ETF score
NAV index
1.016
1.000 at inception · peak 1.022
Drawdown
-0.5%
from NAV peak
Period return
-0.40%
book since prior run
Holdings
11 ETFs · sorted by weight · components: F flow, R regime fit, T theme conviction, M 12-month momentum
| Symbol | Name | Role | Group | Weight | $ | Shares | Score | Components | Theme | Last vs 10m avg | 3m | 12m | Entry | P&L % | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | core | benchmark | 18.4% | $18.4K | 24.1 | 60 | FRTM | — | $778.10 vs $721.41 +7.9% | +3.5% | +15.9% | $762.63 | +2.0% | new2026-10-01 | |
| SMH | Semiconductors | satellite | industryTechnology | 8.5% | $8.5K | 14.0 | 67 | FRTM | AI Infrastructure | $590.99 vs $500.21 +18.1% | -1.6% | +71.2% | $609.00 | -3.0% | new2026-10-01 | |
| CIBR | Cybersecurity | satellite | industryTechnology | 7.9% | $7.9K | 76.9 | 85 | FRTM | Cybersecurity | $107.80 vs $80.61 +33.7% | +13.8% | +38.2% | $103.09 | +4.6% | new2026-10-01 | |
| XLK | Technology | satellite | sectorTechnology | 7.5% | $7.5K | 38.4 | 73 | FRTM | — | $196.36 vs $165.56 +18.6% | +6.9% | +35.3% | $195.75 | +0.3% | new2026-10-01 | |
| SKYY | Cloud Computing | satellite | industryTechnology | 5.9% | $5.9K | 35.9 | 75 | FRTM | Cloud Computing | $172.51 vs $133.87 +28.9% | +23.8% | +25.5% | $163.99 | +5.2% | new2026-10-01 | |
| XLE | Energy | satellite | sectorEnergy | 4.5% | $4.5K | 72.7 | 73 | FRTM | LNG & Energy Security | $66.01 vs $56.57 +16.7% | +15.9% | +50.4% | $61.50 | +7.3% | new2026-10-01 | |
| ARKK | Disruptive Innovation | satellite | industry | 4.5% | $4.5K | 50.2 | 59 | FRTM | Space Economy | $88.02 vs $78.16 +12.6% | +10.7% | -4.0% | $89.10 | -1.2% | new2026-10-01 | |
| XOP | Oil & Gas E&P | satellite | industryEnergy | 4.1% | $4.1K | 22.7 | 69 | FRTM | LNG & Energy Security | $194.29 vs $163.84 +18.6% | +17.1% | +48.3% | $179.33 | +8.3% | new2026-10-01 | |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | satellite | crypto | 3.0% | $3.0K | 0.0 | 72 | FRTM | — | $83,346.00 vs $72,026.14 +15.7% | +30.0% | +5.8% | $83,730.10 | -0.5% | new2026-10-01 | |
| USO | Crude Oil | commodities | commodity | 3.0% | $3.0K | 20.3 | 70 | FRTM | — | $151.03 vs $115.19 +31.1% | +25.7% | +108.3% | $145.66 | +3.7% | new2026-10-01 | |
| DBC | Broad Commodities | commodities | commodity | 2.0% | $2.0K | 61.1 | 69 | FRTM | — | $33.33 vs $28.20 +18.2% | +16.4% | +47.8% | $32.32 | +3.1% | new2026-10-01 |
Sleeves
Risk-engine posture vs what the book holds · a sleeve with no ETF above its 10-month average sits in cash, and vol targeting scales everything down
Posture vs actual posture actual
Equities62.0% → 64.2%+2.2 pts
Treasuries13.0% → 0.0%-13.0 pts
Cash9.0% → 30.9%+21.9 pts
Gold6.0% → 0.0%-6.0 pts
Credit5.0% → 0.0%-5.0 pts
Commodities5.0% → 4.9%-0.1 pts
Actual by role
satellite45.8%
core18.4%
commodities4.9%
This run's trades
Monitoring run · the book only trades at the monthly recalibration (next 2026-11-01)
| Action | Symbol | Name | From | To | $ | Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades. | |||||||
Alerts
Trend breaks on held ETFs, pending the next recalibration
| Symbol | Name | Weight | Alert |
|---|---|---|---|
| No trend breaks pending. | |||
Candidates
Top 25 ETFs by score · ✓ = above the 10-month average and eligible to be held
| # | Symbol | Name | Group | Score | Components | Theme | Last vs 10m avg | 1m | 3m | 12m | Eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIBRheld | Cybersecurity | industry | 85 | FRTM | Cybersecurity | $107.80 vs $80.61 +33.7% | +14.2% | +13.8% | +38.2% | ✓in trend |
| 2 | SKYYheld | Cloud Computing | industry | 75 | FRTM | Cloud Computing | $172.51 vs $133.87 +28.9% | +8.9% | +23.8% | +25.5% | ✓in trend |
| 3 | XLKheld | Technology | sector | 73 | FRTM | — | $196.36 vs $165.56 +18.6% | +4.6% | +6.9% | +35.3% | ✓in trend |
| 4 | XLEheld | Energy | sector | 73 | FRTM | LNG & Energy Security | $66.01 vs $56.57 +16.7% | +1.3% | +15.9% | +50.4% | ✓in trend |
| 5 | BTC-USDheld | Bitcoin | crypto | 72 | FRTM | — | $83,346.00 vs $72,026.14 +15.7% | -1.7% | +30.0% | +5.8% | ✓in trend |
| 6 | USOheld | Crude Oil | commodity | 70 | FRTM | — | $151.03 vs $115.19 +31.1% | -2.5% | +25.7% | +108.3% | ✓in trend |
| 7 | IGV | Software | industry | 69 | FRTM | AI Software & Agents | $111.28 vs $94.38 +17.9% | +9.6% | +18.9% | -3.8% | ✓in trend |
| 8 | XOPheld | Oil & Gas E&P | industry | 69 | FRTM | LNG & Energy Security | $194.29 vs $163.84 +18.6% | -0.7% | +17.1% | +48.3% | ✓in trend |
| 9 | DBCheld | Broad Commodities | commodity | 69 | FRTM | — | $33.33 vs $28.20 +18.2% | +0.5% | +16.4% | +47.8% | ✓in trend |
| 10 | ETH-USD | Ethereum | crypto | 68 | FRTM | — | $2,507.83 vs $2,137.42 +17.3% | -8.0% | +33.4% | +6.9% | ✓in trend |
| 11 | SMHheld | Semiconductors | industry | 67 | FRTM | AI Infrastructure | $590.99 vs $500.21 +18.1% | +4.0% | -1.6% | +71.2% | ✓in trend |
| 12 | MTUM | Momentum | factor | 67 | FRTM | — | $315.09 vs $285.38 +10.4% | +2.6% | -1.5% | +23.1% | ✓in trend |
| 13 | SCHD | Dividend Growth (Schwab) | income | 64 | FRTM | — | $33.26 vs $31.68 +5.0% | -2.5% | +3.3% | +23.2% | ✓in trend |
| 14 | QUAL | Quality | factor | 63 | FRTM | — | $227.72 vs $210.40 +8.2% | +3.4% | +3.9% | +16.3% | ✓in trend |
| 15 | QQQ | Nasdaq-100 | benchmark | 63 | FRTM | — | $746.04 vs $670.08 +11.3% | +4.4% | +3.7% | +22.2% | ✓in trend |
| 16 | VUG | Growth | factor | 62 | FRTM | — | $91.64 vs $83.42 +9.8% | +4.1% | +5.4% | +13.0% | ✓in trend |
| 17 | MLPX | Midstream Energy (C-corp wrapper) | income | 62 | FRTM | — | $72.83 vs $71.24 +2.2% | -3.1% | -4.4% | +20.3% | ✓in trend |
| 18 | CPER | Copper | commodity | 61 | FRTM | Copper & Transition Metals | $40.63 vs $37.44 +8.5% | +3.7% | +5.4% | +28.3% | ✓in trend |
| 19 | SPYheld | S&P 500 | benchmark | 60 | FRTM | — | $778.10 vs $721.41 +7.9% | +1.8% | +3.5% | +15.9% | ✓in trend |
| 20 | XLV | Health Care | sector | 60 | FRTM | GLP-1 & Metabolic Health | $171.99 vs $157.01 +9.5% | +4.0% | +8.7% | +19.3% | ✓in trend |
| 21 | AMLP | MLP Infrastructure | income | 60 | FRTM | — | $52.71 vs $52.26 +0.9% | -5.7% | -2.1% | +15.5% | ✓in trend |
| 22 | RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | benchmark | 59 | FRTM | — | $213.19 vs $205.69 +3.6% | -0.8% | -0.1% | +12.6% | ✓in trend |
| 23 | ARKKheld | Disruptive Innovation | industry | 59 | FRTM | Space Economy | $88.02 vs $78.16 +12.6% | +5.3% | +10.7% | -4.0% | ✓in trend |
| 24 | DGRO | Dividend Growth (iShares) | income | 59 | FRTM | — | $77.79 vs $74.31 +4.7% | -0.6% | +1.7% | +14.2% | ✓in trend |
| 25 | VYM | High Dividend Yield | income | 59 | FRTM | — | $159.24 vs $155.59 +2.3% | -2.3% | -0.6% | +13.5% | ✓in trend |
Excluded by trend
Below the 10-month average, so not eligible whatever the score · best scores first
| Symbol | Name | Group | vs 10m avg | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAVE | Infrastructure | industry | -2.9% | 45 |
| GLD | Gold | commodity | -8.2% | 44 |
| XLC | Communication Services | sector | -2.6% | 42 |
| SHY | 1-3 Year Treasuries | bond | -1.3% | 42 |
| XLI | Industrials | sector | -2.6% | 41 |
| XLU | Utilities | sector | -11.1% | 41 |
| BOTZ | Robotics & AI | industry | -4.4% | 40 |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | sector | -3.4% | 38 |
| SLV | Silver | commodity | -16.6% | 38 |
| IAI | Broker-Dealers & Exchanges | industry | -2.4% | 37 |
| KRE | Regional Banks | industry | -1.2% | 36 |
| IYT | Transportation | industry | -3.0% | 35 |
| IHI | Medical Devices | industry | -7.0% | 35 |
| XME | Metals & Mining | industry | -8.6% | 35 |
| NLR | Nuclear Energy | industry | -20.1% | 35 |
| IJH | Mid Cap | size | -0.2% | 35 |
| XLF | Financials | sector | -0.6% | 34 |
| TIP | TIPS | bond | -4.9% | 34 |
| XLB | Materials | sector | -3.2% | 32 |
| KIE | Insurance | industry | -1.6% | 32 |
Rules
Construction constraints applied at every recalibration
- Trend filter (days)
- 210
- Core share of the equity sleeve
- 30%
- Satellites
- 7
- Per-satellite cap
- 12%
- Correlation-cluster cap
- 25%
- Crypto cap
- 3%
- Target volatility
- 10%
- Score weights
- flow 40% · regime 25% · theme 20% · momentum 15%
History
12 runs · newest first
| As of | Mode | Positions | Cash | NAV index | Drawdown | Trades | Holdings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.016 | -0.5% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-12 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.020 | -0.1% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-09 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.014 | -0.8% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-08 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.016 | -0.6% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-07 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.022 | 0.0% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-06 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.018 | 0.0% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-06 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.018 | 0.0% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-05 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.013 | 0.0% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-02 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.008 | 0.0% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-01 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.000 | 0.0% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-01 | monitor | 11 | 30.9% | 1.000 | 0.0% | 0 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |
| 2026-10-01 | recalibrate | 11 | 30.9% | 1.000 | 0.0% | 11 | SPY, SMH, CIBR, XLK, SKYY, XLE, ARKK, XOP, BTC-USD, USO, DBC |