as of 2026-10-13 · deltas over 60 days
Economic regime
Moderate Expansion / Sticky Inflation / Neutral Liquidity
Regime probabilities
| Regime | Now | 60d ago | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldilocks | 26.8% | 31.2% | -4.4 |
| Reflation | 21.7% | 16.2% | +5.5 |
| Stagflation | 23.0% | 18.0% | +5.0 |
| Contractionmost likely | 28.4% | 34.6% | -6.2 |
Contraction
Growth and inflation both falling: favours long Treasuries, defensives, cash, quality balance sheets.
Long TreasuriesConsumer StaplesUtilitiesHealth CareCashQuality
Dimensions
0-100 · momentum is the weighted 3-month z-score
Growth
50+1.6 / 60d
momentum z -0.03 · 8 indicators
Inflation
47+3.3 / 60d
momentum z -0.33 · 6 indicators
Liquidity
43-9.1 / 60d
momentum z -0.37 · 7 indicators
Rates
74+3.2 / 60d
momentum z +0.75 · 5 indicators
Probability history
Monthly, stacked to 100%
GoldilocksReflationStagflationContraction
Growth · 50
8 indicators · weighted score 50.3, momentum z -0.03
| Indicator | Transform | Value | Raw | z level | z momentum | Score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial ProductionINDPRO | yoy | 1.42 | 103.07 | +0.26 | -0.06 | 53.6 | 1.00 | 2026-08-01 |
| Nonfarm PayrollsPAYEMS | yoy_3m | 0.38 | 159044.00 | -0.08 | -0.02 | 48.5 | 1.00 | 2026-09-01 |
| Initial Jobless ClaimsICSA | inv_yoy | 15.45 | 197000.00 | +0.23 | +0.03 | 54.2 | 1.00 | 2026-10-03 |
| Retail Sales ex Food ServicesRSXFS | yoy | 5.36 | 646347.00 | +0.05 | -0.27 | 47.3 | 0.80 | 2026-08-01 |
| Real GDPGDPC1 | yoy | 2.19 | 24408.01 | -0.13 | -0.16 | 45.8 | 0.80 | 2026-04-01 |
| Unemployment RateUNRATE | inv_diff_12m | 0.10 | 4.20 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 50.2 | 1.00 | 2026-09-01 |
| Housing StartsHOUST | yoy | -1.24 | 1275.00 | -0.25 | +0.38 | 50.9 | 0.50 | 2026-08-01 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity IndexCFNAI | level | -0.04 | -0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | 50.5 | 1.00 | 2026-08-01 |
Inflation · 47
6 indicators · weighted score 47.0, momentum z -0.33
| Indicator | Transform | Value | Raw | z level | z momentum | Score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPICPIAUCSL | yoy | 3.71 | 334.13 | +0.21 | -0.62 | 45.1 | 1.00 | 2026-08-01 |
| Core CPICPILFESL | yoy | 2.76 | 337.76 | -0.26 | -0.33 | 41.4 | 1.00 | 2026-08-01 |
| Core PCEPCEPILFE | yoy | 3.01 | 130.46 | +0.17 | -0.36 | 47.9 | 1.20 | 2026-08-01 |
| PPI All CommoditiesPPIACO | yoy | 9.85 | 287.93 | +0.73 | -0.58 | 54.2 | 0.60 | 2026-08-01 |
| Avg Hourly EarningsAHETPI | yoy | 3.30 | 32.60 | -0.66 | -0.13 | 37.6 | 0.80 | 2026-09-01 |
| 5y Breakeven InflationT5YIE | level | 2.34 | 2.34 | +0.47 | +0.09 | 58.9 | 0.80 | 2026-10-09 |
Liquidity · 43
7 indicators · weighted score 42.9, momentum z -0.37
| Indicator | Transform | Value | Raw | z level | z momentum | Score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance SheetWALCL | yoy | 2.38 | 6747560.00 | -0.16 | +0.09 | 48.6 | 1.00 | 2026-10-07 |
| M2 Money SupplyM2SL | yoy | 5.66 | 23342.80 | -0.09 | +0.09 | 49.7 | 1.00 | 2026-08-01 |
| Chicago Fed Financial ConditionsNFCI | inv_level | 0.49 | -0.49 | +0.22 | -0.14 | 51.8 | 1.20 | 2026-10-02 |
| High Yield OASBAMLH0A0HYM2 | inv_level | -3.15 | 3.15 | -0.14 | -1.01 | 34.6 | 1.00 | 2026-10-08 |
| Broad Dollar IndexDTWEXBGS | inv_yoy | -1.04 | 121.38 | -0.06 | +0.05 | 49.8 | 0.60 | 2026-10-02 |
| 10y Real YieldDFII10 | inv_level | -2.87 | 2.87 | -1.95 | -1.55 | 10.7 | 0.80 | 2026-10-08 |
| Bank CreditTOTBKCR | yoy | 5.86 | 19883.19 | +0.21 | -0.17 | 51.1 | 0.80 | 2026-09-30 |
Rates · 74
5 indicators · weighted score 73.9, momentum z +0.75
| Indicator | Transform | Value | Raw | z level | z momentum | Score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds RateFEDFUNDS | level | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.70 | +0.25 | 69.9 | 1.00 | 2026-09-01 |
| 2y TreasuryDGS2 | level | 4.75 | 4.75 | +1.39 | +1.07 | 84.1 | 1.00 | 2026-10-08 |
| 10y TreasuryDGS10 | level | 5.22 | 5.22 | +1.89 | +1.51 | 90.6 | 1.00 | 2026-10-08 |
| 2s10s CurveT10Y2Y | level | 0.44 | 0.44 | +0.16 | +0.31 | 54.8 | 1.00 | 2026-10-09 |
| 3m10y CurveT10Y3M | level | 0.99 | 0.99 | +0.61 | +0.54 | 67.5 | 0.60 | 2026-10-09 |
Notes
- Scores are point-in-time by observation date with a typical publication lag applied; data revisions are not yet vintage-aware (ALFRED integration is a Phase 2 item).
- Rates dimension scores the *level* of restrictiveness; the others blend level and 3-month momentum.